Lots of information out there, and a lot of speculation and anxiousness.
Here are some solid resources (to keep things in perspective):
The Centers For Disease Control (CDC) and World Health Organization (WHO) are the2 biggies; I prefer the CDC site, it just is more clearly laid out to my eyes.
These give you real-time updates on the state of the 2009 H1N1 influenza (it’s no longer formally referred to as “swine flu” for various reasons), including number of cases overall, and how many have been diagnosed in which states. As of the time of this writing (and it changes from day to day, or even hourly), there are 193 cases confirmed in California, and 3 recorded deaths in the U.S.
To put that last statistic in perspective, the regular influenza “Flu” causes about 36,000 deaths in America, each and every year. So far, the lethality impact of H1N1 has been much less; if it doesn’t mutate into a worse form, this Winter’s flu season may be no worse than usual.
The $65,000 Question
What public health authorities are focusing on, however, is what will happen over the next 6 months.
The current form of the virus seems to require fairly close contact to transmit, and responds to 2 widely available antiviral drugs (Tamiflu and Relenza, which are currently recommended only for use in severe infections, NOT casually — the last thing we want is for the virus to become resistant due to overuse of these meds!); the mortality rate is something on the order of about 1-2%.
Other viral influenza types exist, however, which could potentially mix with H1N1 to create a different strain. For example, H5N1 “bird” flu, very difficult to pass from person to person (it’s passed by direct contact with infected poultry), has an approximately 60% mortality rate. A mix and match of these two viruses would be absolutely no fun at all.
A very widespread global footprint of the current H1N1 strain is already happening, and is likely to qualify as a pandemic, which refers not to an infection’s seriousness, but to how far and wide it spreads. Work has already begun on developing a vaccine for the Fall/Winter, which even if isn’t an exact match for what comes back around in several months, should still confer some immunity to what until now has never been seen among humans.
With no natural human resistance to 2009 H1N1, scientists are very interested about what form it develops into.
What You Can Do
At this time, even though the virus is spreading, its numbers are mainly of academic interest. A sad fact: more people will die on the roads of California this week than have died in the whole U.S. during the entire course of this infection; focusing on the hundreds or thousands of mild cases will just drive you bonkers. You can keep track of locally identified cases by county, in the news or via a Google search online, if it would change your basic travel or school attendance habits.
If you’re going to focus on anything, focus on announcements from the CDC about any changes in the virus — particularly if it sounds like it has mutated into an easier to spread or more lethal form. If it happens, it will likely occur months from now, and overseas. And it may not happen at all.
There is no vaccine as of yet, but there should be by the time of the usual flu shot in September. Keep an ear out for it, as well as any recommendations for its use (it may or may not be recommended universally, or for people with certain health conditions).
Keep in mind the basic symptoms of a viral respiratory infection — fever, cough, aches, malaise — and discuss with your doctor what to do if you get them. Chances are, it’s NOT H1N1, but call your doctor to discuss your symptoms, especially if they’re worsening.
Under the heading of sensible medical advice in general, remember the cardinal rules (see the CDC site for more information):
- If you’re sick, stay home and call your doctor. Puh-lease don’t share your germs with coworkers, schoolmates, or your children’s playmates.
- Wash your hands with soap and hot/warm water, often. Especially after touching high-traffic surfaces in public places. Singing the alphabet song, “A-B-C-D…tell me what you THINK of ME,” at a child’s pace takes about 20 seconds, the recommended washing time, and don’t forget under and around your nails. Use hand sanitizer gel or foam if you’re not near a washbasin.
- In public areas, avoid touching your eyes, mouth, or nose. Germs on surfaces enter your body mainly through these sites.
- Cough or sneeze into your shoulder or sleeve, as a courtesy to others. If coming down with something, even if it feels like a little cold, avoid coughing or sneezing or wiping your nose in public. If you must be somewhere public, especially if you’re feeling worse, consider wearing a mask.
Most important of all, don’t panic.
Be attentive, stay healthy, and focus on what you already know you should be doing “when something’s going around.”
