Flu Season 2010: It’s That Time Of Year, Again

By now, you should have seen plenty of ads for flu shots, at your local pharmacy, supermarket — and yes, doctor’s office (Family Care Centers has plenty).

And, yes, influenza is here in Orange County, though just a tidge.

Should you get a shot? The answer may surprise you.

We’re not going to force the issue

Last year was a nail biter: H1N1 was fresh on the scene, with horrible stats (the majority of deaths were in people under 65, from massive lung failure), and relatively few folks had any kind of natural immunity. Plus, vaccine supply chains were questionable at best.

This year is different. The vaccine is plentiful, and an estimated 60-80% of Americans will have some degree of H1N1 protection (partly because 1 in 5 simply got the H1N1 flu). Public health officials aren’t spooked about overwhelmed ICUs and overflowing hospitals.

So you seem to have a choice.

You’ve heard of The Black Swan Fallacy, right? Herd Immunity? No?

The “Black Swan” fallacy, and “herd immunity” are two ideas you should wrap your mind around, if you’re considering whether to get the shot.

“Black Swan” refers to a really common way of thinking: It hasn’t happened to me yet, so it ain’t gonna. I’ve never seen a black swan, so all swans must be white, right? Problem is, you could turn the next corner and be staring at a black swan. I hear this all the time: “Doc, I’ve never gotten the flu, and never get sick in the winter, so I’m going to skip the flu shot.”

To a doctor, this is like saying “Doc, I haven’t died yet, so I must be immortal.”

Herd immunity also comes up whenever vaccines are discussed. If you’re in the middle of a group of folks that have gotten the shot and are immune — your “herd” (moo) — you’ll be protected even if you don’t get a shot, because your herd will “run interference” for you, preventing the germs from reaching you.

The problem is, this only works when talking in broad population terms: will a third of the herd drop dead the next time Germ X comes around.

Individually, you’re still at risk. If only a couple of people you know have gotten the flu shot, you’re not going to be protected when Mr. Feverishly Coughing sits across from you.

Survey says…

The Centers For Disease Control is recommending that pretty much anyone over 6 months who isn’t allergic to eggs get the flu shot. The standard Especially you guys finger waving applies, for folks who are especially at risk for having a hard, possibly fatal time from getting the flu — really, really strongly consider getting the shot if you:

1. are 6 months to 4 years old
2. have asthma or any chronic lung, heart, kidney or other condition summarized here
3. have diabetes
4. are or will be pregnant during the Winter
5. are caregivers to children under 5 years, adults older than 50 years, or those with chronic conditions

Healthcare personnel are also on the Get This list for obvious reasons; folks who are First Responders should be, too. And if your line of work puts you in close contact with loads of people — shaking hands, talking up close, or corralling kids — consider yourself at similarly increased exposure risk.

Talk to your doctor

If you’re on the fence about the whole idea of vaccinations, this post isn’t going to convince you. Your doctor is the best place to raise your questions and concerns — I firmly believe there’s no such thing as a stupid question, if it’s getting between you and the truth, and my colleagues feel the same.

As someone with asthma who’s had influenza, I can assure you, it’s no picnic. I recommend Getting The Shot, bigtime.

But if you decide not to, that’s workable. There are options to stay healthy, and to get treatment if you do get sick this flu season.